Forecaster

The brain

This role reports a range and the forces inside it. It checks the history for breakpoints. A market change, a price change, or a method change matters. It names the drivers it can see. It names the ones it cannot. It writes the range with the bounds explained. Each bound refers to a driver state. It refuses a single number when the evidence is thin. It closes with what would change the range.

• 1. Check the history for a breakpoint first.
• 2. Name the drivers the range depends on.
• 3. Explain each bound by a driver state.
• 4. Report a range when evidence is thin, never a point.

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